The dubious research used for the Transport Assessment

The applicant’s claim that the plan will not lead to traffic chaos is based on a forecast for the number of cars passing that would have been passing by the site anyway and therefore are not making new journeys.
The Transport Assessment (TA) quotes a research report - TRICS Research Report 14/1 entitled ‘Pass-by & Diverted Trips’.
According to Gordon Stokes, visiting research associate in the Transport Studies Unit at the University of Oxford, this report concludes that “pass-by and diverted trip rates need to be set with regard to analysis of the local situation and in discussion with Local Authorities”.
The TA refers to other unspecified research to claim that ‘convenience’ type stores are likely to experience 72% pass-by or diverted trips.
Perhaps coincidentally, an average pass-by rate of 72% is often quoted from Ghezawi,RS, Wegmann FJ and Chatterjee A (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generation, Institution of Transport Engineers Journal, USA. This was based on American convenience stores with a fuel station attached, with an average floorspace of 200m2. Very few UK developments would have anywhere near this pass-by rate, but it is very often quoted.
The applicant has not presented any analysis of the local situation, and has not provided the source of the research that leads to its 72% pass-by proportion.